The threat of a new enemy offensive remains in the Sumy Region. Occupiers are concentrating new forces in this area. They are understaffed and rather limited, which may indicate that they are drawing and fixing Ukrainian troops near the border as a desired goal.
This was reported by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
Analysts, citing Ukrainian sources, note that Russian troops continue to concentrate limited, understaffed and and incohesive forces in the Sumy direction. The analysts mention how the Deputy Commander of a Ukrainian Brigade operating in the north of Kharkiv Region stated that Russian troops, including Chechen forces, are accumulating in the Sumy direction.
However, experts believe that even such a grouping of Russian forces with limited personnel will be able to achieve the likely desired effect, i.e., to draw back and fix Ukrainian forces on the border.
The analysis also mentions how on May 20, Ukrainian military observer Kostyantyn Mashovets reported that the Russian group in the Kursk region numbers 9,000-10,000 personnel. It consists of:
- three under-strength motorized rifle regiments,
- eight motorized rifle, tank and infantry battalions,
- one airborne (VDV) battalion all redeployed from various units, formations, and military districts,
- at least two assault detachments at the echelon of a reinforced company or an under-strength battalion.
ISW analysts believe that even such limited activity of Russian troops in certain parts of the frontline near the border, which is below the threshold of Russian offensive operations, may be aimed at stretching Ukrainian forces over a wider area. Russian troops will be able to draw in and thus fix Ukrainian forces in the area as long as Russia threatens to break through other border areas outside the northern part of Kharkiv Region.
Earlier, we reported that the Russians engaged only 10% of their forces in the Kharkiv Region.