Russia is not facing a default in the near future, but there is a high probability of a large-scale economic crisis.
This is stated in the material of Apostrophe".
It is noted that in fact in 2022 there was a default in the Russian Federation, which did not significantly affect the general state of the economy.
"If we talk about the default on Russia's external debt, it has already happened - on June 27, 2022, the international rating agency Moody's announced it. And before that, on June 1, 2022, the Credit Derivatives Determinations Committees recognized this during a vote," said Maksym Oryshchak, an analyst at the "Center of Exchange Technologies" (CBT).
According to Vitaliy Shapran, former member of the NBU Council, this forced default caused by the sanctions has affected the ability of Russian companies to borrow funds in dollars and euros abroad. Not only in the West, but also in many Asian countries.
However, the probability of default in the Russian Federation on domestic public debt today is minimal. According to Maksym Oryshchak, Russia has so far managed to reduce its budget deficit. At the same time, the current level of public debt - about 20% of GDP - is quite low (in many developed countries it is close to 100% of GDP, and in some it is much higher).
However, there is a possibility of a large-scale economic crisis in Russia, and according to Vitaliy Shapran, such a crisis is already unfolding.
"For January-February (2024), the number of bankruptcies in Russia increased by 59% compared to the same period last year. There is no miracle here. Loan rates are increasing along with the rate of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation, the interest burden is "killing" borrowers. That is, the interest rate risk is transformed into credit, and the catalyst for this is a decrease in business activity," the expert said in a comment to "Apostrophe".
According to him, the process is going slower than we would like. But large defaults are already visible on the market. For example, the same "Rosnano" or Qiwi-bank - holes are closed with taxpayers' money, but these funds are limited.
To "pay off" the consequences of the crisis, the aggressor country will need from $100 to $150 billion. "They have this money, but it (the crisis) will limit their ability to continue military operations," says Maksym Oryshchak.
Vitaliy Shapran predicts that in the future from three to five years in Russia there may be a significant decrease in investment and a drop in real lending.
"And if at the same time sanctions restrictions remain, the Russian Federation will face a crisis that can be compared to the economic catastrophe of the time of the collapse of the USSR," the expert summarized.
Earlier, "Apostrophe" reported that the EU prepared legislation that provides for the transfer of profits from frozen Russian assets to Ukraine.