Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky recently stated that Ukraine needs 25 Patriot systems to protect its skies from Russian ballistic missiles. Our partners from Germany have already responded, suggesting that assistance with these systems should be sought worldwide, as European options are exhausted. Who could potentially aid Ukraine in supplying the required number of air defense systems? Arms expert Oleg Katkov shared his opinion on Apostrophe TV.
The quantity of Patriots requested by our president, which amounts to 25 batteries, is extremely challenging. To put it in perspective, in the entire European NATO segment, there are only about 30-35 Patriot systems according to available sources. Moreover, some of these are still in the process of being deployed, as they were ordered after the full-scale invasion of Ukraine began. Delivery of these systems takes quite some time, and it may be several more years before they are operational. In the US, there are about 60 Patriot batteries, covering all states and their bases worldwide. This situation directly impacts the availability of Patriots that could theoretically be obtained from our partners.
Germany's initiative to seek Patriots outside of Europe and NATO is understandable, given its leadership role in the coalition for air defense. It's clear that they will be exploring options beyond Europe and NATO for acquiring Patriots.
There are several Asian countries that operate Patriots, but none of them supply heavy weaponry to Ukraine. Japan, for instance, has about 24 Patriot batteries but has limited its arms exports. Similarly, South Korea is not in a position to transfer any weaponry, considering the threat from North Korea. As for Taiwan, it's out of the question due to their need for the seven batteries to defend against potential aggression from China.
The Middle East presents a complex situation. There is no information regarding armed assistance from countries in this region to Ukraine. Saudi Arabia holds a significant stock of these systems, estimated at 18 to 25 batteries according to various sources. Perhaps the United Kingdom could assist in this matter, given its military-technical cooperation with the Saudis.
It's possible that various components of Patriot systems will be sourced from different countries. For instance, radars could be obtained from one source while launchers from another. Previously, Germany and the Netherlands collaborated to assemble one system for Ukraine.
Another significant challenge is sourcing Patriot missiles. Currently, the United States isn't providing assistance to Ukraine, so we need to acquire missiles from elsewhere. It's worth noting that production is primarily in the USA, with companies like Lockheed Martin and Raytheon. The responsibility for providing missiles now falls on countries that operate Patriots. It's crucial to understand the annual production capacity. For example, Lockheed Martin produces around 500 MSE missiles per year. Considering the standard consumption ratio of two missiles per ballistic target, this production could effectively counter 250 ballistic targets annually. Japan has allowed the export of MSE missiles produced by Mitsubishi, but they can only be exported to the USA, contingent on US assistance.
In Europe, there are orders for 1000 Patriot missiles, specifically GEM-T missiles, designed to intercept aerodynamic targets like aircraft. However, these missiles will only be available from the assembly line in two years.
Patriot's analogues
Yes, we could be referring to the European SAMP/T system. Ukraine has one such system in service. However, it's important to note that France and Italy took a considerable amount of time to assemble this system for Ukraine. But there are significantly fewer of these systems compared to Patriot, with them only being in service in France, Italy, and Singapore.
Another analog is the Israeli David's Sling system, which has demonstrated effective counteraction to ballistic threats. However, Israel neither supplies weapons to Ukraine nor allows re-export. The number of David's Slings is classified information, and the only export contract was with Finland, but the terms of supply are unknown even there.
Therefore, it's very challenging to discuss assistance with air defense systems when our primary arms supplier, referring to the USA, has not yet finalized the budget for aid to Ukraine.
