In 2024, Ukraine will try to seize the initiative and conduct unspecified counteroffensive actions, although the main focus will be on stabilizing the front line. However, the long delays in Western security assistance are now forcing Ukraine to consider how to allocate resources for future and ongoing defense operations.
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) stated this in its report.
Experts recall the statement of the Commander of the Ground Forces of the AFU on March 6. Then Lieutenant General Oleksandr Pavlyuk said that Ukraine would try to seize the initiative and conduct unspecified counteroffensive actions in 2024. The troops would focus on stabilizing the front line.
However, the Ground Forces Commander believes that this will allow Ukraine to create a grouping of forces that will conduct unspecified counteroffensive actions in 2024, and possibly counteroffensive operations.
President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky also mentioned a counteroffensive operation in 2024. At the same time, he emphasized that the main task remains the defense of Ukrainian territory.
ISW recalls Zelensky's words about a new offensive operation being prepared by Russia. It is believed to begin in late May or summer 2024.
"...which would likely further postpone opportunities for Ukraine to prepare and launch counteroffensive operations," the report states.
Pavlyuk notes that now the enemy is doing everything to maintain a relatively high pace of offensive actions and to keep the initiative on the front line.
They focused their attention on the Avdiivka and Lyman directions, as well as on Chasiv Yar (west of Bakhmut).
ISW also notes that long delays in Western security assistance may delay Ukraine's attempts to regain initiative on the front line.
"Materiel shortages are forcing Ukrainian forces to husband materiel and uncertainty about future assistance is likely constraining Ukrainian operational planning.," the report says.
Experts believe that such delays in aid will force Ukraine to consider difficult decisions about the competent allocation of resources, in particular between future counteroffensive operations and Ukrainian defense operations, which are being conducted now.
That is why ISW emphasizes the special importance of Western security assistance:
"Western security assistance is crucial for both Ukraine’s ability to concentrate material and manpower for future counteroffensive operations as well as its ability to degrade Russian offensive efforts sufficiently enough so that Ukraine can seize the theater wide initiative."
Earlier we wrote thatUkraine has a good chance to take advantage of the gap between the "elections" and a new mobilization in Russia.