The Russians continue to try to break through the defense of the Ukrainian military, intensifying offensive operations along the entire front line. Given the delay in the provision of Western weapons, the Ukrainian Armed Forces may have to make difficult decisions on defense priorities.
This was reported by experts of the Institute of War Studies.
In particular, ISW analysts note how Lieutenant General Kyrylo Budanov, Head of the Main Military Intelligence Directorate of Ukraine, said that Ukraine expects Russia to intensify its offensive operations in late spring and early summer.
They refer to Budanov's interview with the German broadcaster ARD, which was published on April 7. He said that Ukraine expects a particular intensification of Russian offensive operations, particularly in Donbas.
The Chief of the Defense Intelligence also believes that Russian occupation forces are likely to try to advance to Chasovyi Yar (west of Bakhmut) and in the direction of Pokrovsk (about 43 km northwest of Avdiivka).
In addition, ISW analysts noted that the Russians intensified the tempo of their offensive operations across the battlefield, in particular by conducting a mechanized assault in the direction of Chasiv Yar on April 4. They recall President Zelensky pointing out that the delay in security assistance "forced Ukraine to cede the battlefield initiative to Russia and that the Ukrainian military cannot plan a successful counteroffensive or defensive effort without knowing when and what kind of aid Ukraine will receive."
ISW experts continues to assess that delays in Western military assistance have forced the Ukrainian military to husband materiel. Therefore, analysts note that Ukrainian troops will have to make difficult decisions about prioritizing certain aspects of their defense due to the ongoing debate in the United States over military aid, either by fighting the initiative to constrain Russian military capabilities or by planning future counteroffensive operations.
The directions of fighting
Luhansk Region
On April 7, positional fighting continued west of Kreminna near Terny and south of Kreminna near Bilohorivka. A Russian milblogger pointed to an offensive near Terny.
Donetsk Region
On April 7, the Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian troops repelled Russian attacks in the northern direction (northeast of Bakhmut) near Spirne, Vyimka, Rozdolivka, Fedorivka and Vesele. On April 7, Russian troops advanced to the northwest and west of Bakhmut, but there were no confirmed changes on the front line.
Positional fighting continued:
- northwest of Bakhmut in the area of Bohdanivka,
- west of Bakhmut in the area of Ivanivske,
- southwest of Bakhmut near Klishchiyivka and Andriivka.
Russian troops recently made a confirmed advance west of Avdiivka on April 7 amid ongoing positional fighting in the area. Geolocation footage released on April 7 shows that Russian forces recently advanced northwest of Pervomaiske (southwest of Avdiivka).
Positional fighting continued northwest of Avdiivka in the area of Novokalynove, Novobakhmutivka and Berdychiv; west of Avdiivka near Tonenke and Semenivka; and southwest of Avdiivka near Pervomayske, Nevelske and Vodyane.
Russian forces were also reported to have advanced southwest of Donetsk city amid ongoing positional fighting west and southwest of Donetsk city on April 7. Russian milbloggers claimed that Russian troops advanced in the center of Novomykhailivka (southwest of Donetsk city), as well as to the north and south of the settlement, but ISW did not observe any visual evidence of changes on the frontline.
Southern Axis
On April 7, positional fighting continued in the western Zaporizhzhia Region near Robotyne and northwest of Verbove (east of Robotyne), but there were no confirmed changes on the front line. A Russian milblogger claimed that Russian forces had captured an unspecified Ukrainian position northwest of Verbove, but ISW found no visual evidence of this.
Russian troops also attempted to attack Ukrainian positions on the eastern (left) bank of the Kherson Region with a relatively larger number of small assault groups. On April 7, positional fighting continued on the eastern shore of Kherson Region near Krynky.
Earlier, we reported that the Czech Republic will allocate tens of millions of euros as part of its own initiative to purchase ammunition for the Ukrainian Armed Forces.