NATO continues to expand its presence, and on March 11, Sweden's flag was raised at the Alliance's headquarters. However, the U.S. intelligence community believes that Russia will not cross the same "red lines" but will continue to operate at a level verging on military conflict on a global scale.
This is stated in the report of the US intelligence community.
It is noted that the main challenge for the West and its partners is Russia's ties with China, Iran, and North Korea, which aim to strengthen their defense production and economy.
The report states that Russia will continue to defend its interests in a competitive, and sometimes confrontational and provocative manner. It is likely that Russia will also try to influence the post-Soviet countries to varying extents.
In addition, according to the U.S. intelligence community, Russia almost certainly does not want a direct military conflict with U.S. and NATO forces and will continue asymmetric activity below what it calculates to be the threshold of military conflict globally and will not cross these "red lines."
Although Putin has damaged Russia's international reputation by launching a large-scale invasion of Ukraine, the report shows that Russia is implementing policies to mitigate these costs and leveraging foreign relationships to minimize sanctions-related damage and rebuild its credibility as a great power.
Currently, the aggressor country is also trying to compensate for the decline in its relations with the West by expanding contacts with China, Iran, North Korea, and southern countries.
In addition, the US intelligence community believes that it will continue to use all "sources of national power" to promote its own narratives and interests. However, a significant separation from Western markets and technologies and a decrease in "human capital" will be a significant challenge for Moscow.
Earlier, we reported that NATO is launching large-scale exercises.