According to a Guildhall source in Ukrainian intelligence, the Russian Federation has begun destabilizing Moldova, which could result in military aggression against the country.
According to the plan, which became known to Ukrainian intelligence, the Russian influence agency in Moldova is planning to launch mass anti-government protests, timed to May 9. The formal reason for the protests should be a ban on Russian symbols, including St. George's ribbons, as well as the letters Z and V, which symbolize support for Russian aggression against Ukraine. In addition to the Moldovan capital, Chisinau, special attention is being paid to protests in the northern regions of Moldova, including Balti and Gagauzia.
Major General Dmitry Milutin, Deputy Head of the Operational Information Department of the 5th FSB Service, Colonel Valeriy Solokha, Head of the 11th Department of the FSB, and Igor Chaika, the unofficial Kremlin curator of Moldova (son of the former Russian Prosecutor General), are directly coordinating the destabilization. Alexei Yefremov, Yuriy Gudilin and Maxim Gromov, employees of the 11th Department of the FSB, were also involved in direct events.
The high probability of using destabilization to create the preconditions for Russia's military aggression against Moldova is indicated by the fact that Chisinau Mayor Ion Cheban, a proxy and agent of Russian intelligence, plans to leave Moldova during the May 9 protests. According to Ukrainian intelligence, Cheban decided to leave Moldova for Bulgaria on the instructions of his curator Colonel Grygoryi Velykykh, who is a seconded officer of the FSB's Operational Information Department and serves under the guise of deputy director of the The Roscongress Foundation.
Velykykh insisted for Cheban to leave Moldova, as he is in immediate physical danger due to possible hostilities in Chisinau, as well as reputational risks in the event of a failure of the Russian operation. The 5th Service views Cheban as Moldova's most promising pro-Russian politician and expects to use him as both a post-occupation leader and a possible political opponent of Sandu in the event of a military scenario failure.
It is noteworthy that Russian special services used similar approaches in Ukraine on the eve of the invasion. Many high-ranking pro-Russian politicians in Ukraine and other agents of influence were evacuated by February 24, 2022.
Earlier, the British Royal Institute for Defense Studies (RUSI) published its own report, which noted the high probability of the beginning of Russian aggression against Moldova.
According to Ukrainian intelligence, the Russian military operation in Moldova may consist in the direct capture of the capital by the Russian Armed Forces Task Force in Transnistria, 4 brigades of the Transnistrian Armed Forces, a special brigade of the Ministry of Internal Affairs "Dniester", with the participation of several special forces of Russian Armed Forces, which have already been brought to the territory of Moldova through tourist channels.